“You Need a Delusional Brain to Run a Gallery These Days”

Entering the 2026 edition of New York Art Week, the mood was far from buoyant: while the art market had shown some signs of recovery last year, the question on every gallerist’s lips was “But will it last?” The headwinds were familiar: the Iran conflict, now two months old, ongoing wars in the Middle East, persistent inflation and record prices at the pump.

The week kicked off with Sotheby’s hammering down on an $85.8 million Rothko painting, which led a sales total of $433.1m, more than double 2025’s $186.1m. Later that week, Christie’s set a record for Jackson Pollock at $181.2 m, Phillips posted a white glove sale, bringing the week’s total to just shy of $2 bn, far above 2025’s results. With the NASDAQ up 11 percent in the year to date, wealthy Americans – insulated from the Iran crisis by stock portfolios that just keep rising – are still spending on art, even as consumer confidence among ordinary Americans has crashed.

But is this phenomenon restricted to blue-chip artworks, or has the whole market been uplifted? Lorraine Kiang, whose gallery Kiang Malingue showed at Independent, noted of that fair that it “has a kind of pull for people who have the budget to collect without being too concerned about the investment value of works. It’s still falling in the price range that is for people who are just art enthusiasts.”

In the auction rooms, artworks in the upper price ranges are treated as investments: the Rothko came from the estate of Robert Mnuchin, a well-known secondary market dealer who had purchased the piece for $6.7m in 2003. The mid-market fairs attract a different audience: the true enthusiast. However, the macro signs for running a midsize gallery are still tricky. As Olga Temnikova, gallerist and cofounder of Esther Art Fair, told The Art Journal: “It’s key to our industry to be delusional. You need to have a delusional brain to run a gallery these days.” In a week when the headline numbers looked strong, what was happening in the primary market – at Frieze, Independent, Esther, Nada – and who, exactly, was buying?

Independent, New York, 2026, Pier 36, Nate Lewis, Robert Pruitt, Samuel Levi Jones, Vielmetter Los Angeles. Photo: Andy Romer / CKA. Courtesy Independent

A K-shaped market

Economists describe the current state of the US economy as ‘K-shaped’: asset-holders rising, salary-earners squeezed. The art market mirrors this, with a strong top tier consisting of secondary market blue chips and the middle and lower tiers – where prices top out at below $100k, and many works are sold for around $10k – squeezed.

The 2026 Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report revealed that midsize galleries in the $250k – $1m turnover band saw the highest share of declining margins of any segment – 45 percent – even as aggregate sales rose. For Clare McAndrew, the report’s author, this implied ‘that the better performance was likely to have been concentrated among a minority of businesses, or that the costs to generate more sales outweighed their benefits’.

Fair costs rose 9 percent in 2025, even as mid-market galleries increased their reliance on fairs to 35 percent of sales – the highest since 2022. Sales are up, but not enough to offset the cost environment. As one dealer put it, “Art fairs are the most risky factor for our business, and the extremely high costs are a killer for a small or medium gallery.”

The view from the fairs

 At Frieze, the mid-market mood was genuinely buoyant. On top of several seven-figure sales led by two El Anatsuis at around the $2m price mark at White Cube, the six-figure range was strong. New York’s 303 Gallery reported many sales in the mid-range bracket: Doug Aitken’s Terra at $225k, multiple Sam Falls works ($65k–$150k), a Sue Williams at $115k, Rob Pruitt works at $80k and $150k, and Jeppe Hein sculptures at around €85k–€90k. The gallery’s Lisa Spellman enthused that it had been “a wild fair with strong sales throughout”. Several other mid-segment galleries noted sellout booths: James Cohan (Kelly Sinnapah Mary paintings, ranging from $20k to $130k), Night Gallery (Haley Barker, $30k–$175k). Kukje Gallery and Tina Kim Gallery both sold extensively in the $10k–$468k range across Korean artists – Ha Chong-Hyun, Kim Tschang-Yeul, Lee ShinJa – suggesting strong Asian collector presence and continued institutional appetite for this market. Mendes Wood saw strong interest from international buyers and “were happy to place works by Precious Okoyomon, Antonio Oba, Sonia Gomez, Paolo Pjota”. Focus, Frieze’s section dedicated to younger galleries, also stood out, with Public Gallery and Soft Opening (both London) selling out and W-Galería (Buenos Aires) placing a Seba Calfuqueo work with the Baltimore Museum of Art. Frieze counted 25,000 visitors across its five-day opening: most VIPs were American, with some Latin American and Asian visitors, and almost none from Europe, as Observer noted.

Antonio Darden at Kendra Jayne Patrick, 2026 (installation view, Independent NY). Courtesy Kendra Jayne Patrick

The curated, invitation-only Independent moved to a single-floor space at Pier 36, on the Lower East Side – anchored by a Comme des Garçons project – with 76 galleries spanning Hong Kong to Switzerland. Kiang noted that it “felt like a fair where people were really interested in the art itself… that brings back the authenticity of the art experience. That was quite special, happening in New York.” Kendra Jayne Patrick (Bern/NYC), who presented an Antonia Darden solo booth, said, “People are ready for something fresh… the selection committee made choices not to just say, ok, bring your safest work”. The gallery sold the sole videowork at the fair. Kiang Malingue did well too, with all Tseng Chien-Ying’s works shown on day one sold, generating strong press attention. Neither gallery disclosed precise figures, but both covered fair costs and more. Compared to May 2025, Patrick noted a shift in collector psychology: “I want it, I like it and I’ll take it – I haven’t felt that energy in a good two or three years.”

The Art Market Report’s deglobalist finding played out in practice: Patrick saw “mostly local” visitors, Kiang “mainly New Yorkers”. Yet the economics remained tight: “Shipping costs are extremely high and the Independent fair itself is not cheap either,” Kiang noted – margins thin, risk to artists’ livelihoods real. The fair’s success also pointed to a power shift: "Collectors have been in the driver's seat for five years. That has not been good: we (the gallerists) are returning to being tastemakers. Which is what I really wanted and what feels exciting."

Tseng Chien-Ying at Kiang Malingue, Independent, NY, 2026. Photo: Erin Brady. Courtesy the artist and Kiang Malingue

Across town, the third and final edition of Esther, a fair organised by gallerists for gallerists, took place at Estonian House. Cofounder Olga Temnikova noted that of the 23 galleries taking part, 20 reported good sales at price ranges between $800 and $80,000, with the most common price point at around $10,000. Its “definitely not people who do seven-figure acquisitions, it’s collectors who support discovery-level galleries,” she said, echoing Kiang and Patrick on current collector interests.

And it succeeded: “It was probably the best vibe ever; galleries really clicked between themselves. It felt really communal, everyone was supporting each other and helping to sell each other’s works,” Temnikova commented. Here, too, collectors were regional, but this extended to the galleries: “(Many) European galleries were not ready to take this small risk to come over. But those who did, they were successful.” Collectors wanted local presentation: “I sent a PDF to one of the collectors who didn’t come, saying, ‘Look, this could be something, it’s sad you missed this’, and she's like, ‘Oh, this looks great – who represents her in the US?’ And I’m like, what is this question, this gallery came all the way to New York!”. Despite its success in espousing a grassroots approach to fairs, this marks the final edition of Esther. “We didn't want to leave when it’s already boring,” Temnikova said, laughing. “We wanted to go when everyone loves it,” refusing to be drawn on a future European project.

New York Art Week  confirmed the art market’s own K-shape: wealthy collectors spending freely at the top; the primary market holding steady but not booming below. The art-enthusiast instinct – buy because you love it, not because it appreciates – was alive and kicking. As Temnikova put it: “This year is better, definitely.” Whether that holds through the European summer remains to be seen.